Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
